Steelers vs. Bills odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL’s ‘Sunday Night Football’ game

NFL

Steelers vs. Bills odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL’s ‘Sunday Night Football’ game

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When the Steelers (11-1) travel to Buffalo to play the Bills (9-3) on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), they will be trying to rebound from their first loss of the 2020 NFL season. Pittsburgh is clinging to a slim lead over Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, while Buffalo, currently No. 3,

Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen are both playing well at quarterback. The Steelers have had the more reliable defense, while the Bills have had the more explosive offense. Neither team has run the ball consistently well, but don’t mind passing for high volume.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Steelers vs. Bills in Week 14, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Sunday Night Football.”

Steelers vs. Bills odds

    Spread: Bills by 1.5Over/under: 48Point spread odds: Steelers +110, Bills -130

The Steelers started out as slight favorites until the shocking home loss to Washington on Monday, following the Bills blowing out the 49ers on Monday. The Bills get a rare big home game late in the season on Sunday night.

Steelers vs. Bills all-time series

The Steelers lead 16-10 over 26 meetings. The injury-riddled Steelers lost the Dec. 15 meeting in 2019, also on a Sunday night, at home 17-10. Before that game, the Steelers had won six straight going back to 2001. The Bills last beat the Steelers at home in 1999.

Three trends to know

— 68 percent of spread bettors like the Steelers to cover and essentially win on the road as small underdogs.

— 53 percent of over/under bettors think the sub-50 point total is too low based on the talent of the offenses.

— The Steelers are 8-4 against the spread this season and five of their games have gone over. The Bills are 7-5 against the spread and eight of their games have gone over.

Three things to watch

Tomlin vs. McDermott

Mike Tomlin, the Steelers’ head coach, and Sean McDermott, the Bills’ head coach, were once teammates at William & Mary. Tomlin has called out his team for recent sloppy play and it caught up to Pittsburgh in the loss to Washington. McDermott is headed to put his team in the playoffs for a third time with sound scheming all-around. Tomlin will need to use his best motivating to get his team back on track in a tough matchup.

Roethlisberger vs. Allen

Big Ben has not showed a big arm this season. He’s relied upon a short-to-intermediate, quick passing game to his talented wide receivers, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Bills have been lighting up everywhere with Allen, led by Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, with various receiving stepping up for big plays throughout the season. Roethlisberger will need his vintage self to outduel Allen, with help from the Steelers defense.

Steelers’ running game vs. Bills’ run defense

The Bills have the No. 24 run defense, allowing on average 126 yards per game. The Steelers have the No. 29 rushing offense, averaging only 92.6 yards per game. James Conner is set to return to help and may get the ball a lot to help take pressure off Roethlisberger and help keep Allen off the field.

Stat that matters

199.8. That’s how many average passing yards the Steelers give up per game, No. 2 in the NFL going into Week 14. They have tended to give up some big pass plays with some coverage lapses and they did lose key edge rusher Bud Dupree. But the Steelers need their pass rush to rev up against Allen and rattle him to have a chance.

Steelers vs. Bills prediction

The Steelers lost their perfect season but that might help them refocus and find their way to better play. The Bills cruised on the 49ers with no pressure on Allen but that changes big time here. Going too one-dimensional against Pittsburgh doesn’t end well, while Pittsburgh becomes a little better balanced to steal the game.

Steelers 27, Bills 20