Patriots vs. Rams odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL’s ‘Thursday Night Football’ game
When the Patriots (6-6) travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams (8-4) to open NFL Week 14 on “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video), they will look to keep improving their AFC wild-card hopes. Meanwhile, the Rams will be focused on making sure they remain in first place in the NFC West.
The game is a Super Bowl 53 rematch, in which the Patriots defeated the Rams 13-3. With the Patriots coming off a 45-0 shutout of the Chargers and the Rams playing excellent defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, the sequel should also be a rather low-scoring slugfest.
Bill Beiichick and Sean McVay are two of the NFL’s best coaches and both teams will be well prepared for a short-week affair.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Patriots vs.Rams in Week 14, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Thursday Night Football.”
Patriots vs. Rams odds
- Spread: Patriots by 5Over/under: 45Point spread odds: Patriots +205, Rams -245
The Patriots have some momentum with the big Chargers win in the same stadium in Los Angeles. The Rams smashed the Cardinals on the road, whom the Patriots handled well in Week 12. This is an unusual line between field goal and TD, but that makes this an easier game to navigate.
Patriots vs. Rams all-time series
The Patriots lead the rivalry 9-5. That includes two Super Bowl wins after the 2001 and 2018 seasons. The Patriots have won six straight in the series. Before then, the Rams won four consecutive games going back to 1989.
Three trends to know
— 94 percent of spread bettors like the Rams to win by a touchdown or more as the better overall team with a stronger defense.
— 85 percent of over/under bettors think the point total is too low despite the presence of two red-hot defenses.
— The Patriots are 6-6 against the spread this season. The Rams are 8-4 against the spread this season. The Patriots and Rams have seen their totals go over only four times each.
Three things to watch
Cam Newton vs. Aaron Donald
Newton is at his best being able to stand tall in the pocket and do some power-rushing up the middle as the Patriots’ starting quarterback. With their limited receivers, the Patriots want to avoid Newton throwing too much, leaning on his running and those of his backs. If the Rams stop the run, the Patriots would need to find a way to soften things up, putting pressure on Newton to make some big pass plays downfield.
Jared Goff vs. the Patriots’ defense
The Patriots will likely work to take away wide receiver Cooper Kupp first away from Goff, forcing him to spread the ball around and the Rams to win by being more effective on the ground with a rushing committee now led by rookie Cam Akers. Goff has been up-and-down all season.
Jalen Ramsey vs. Stephon Gilmore
The Rams have their brash shutdown corner in Ramsey. The Patriots have their reigning NFL defensive player of the year at the position in Glimore. Gilmore will likely be charged with covering Robert Woods, while Ramsey likely won’t travel with no true Patriots No. 1.
Stat that matters
291.3. That’s how many total yards of offense on average the Rams give up per game, second in the NFL. The Patriots are No. 22 in total offense. Nothing has to give there. This is a brutal matchup for Newton and all of New England, so there will be more of an emphasis to win via big plays on defense and special teams like the Patriots did last week in Los Angeles.
Patriots vs. Rams prediction
This feels like another ugly game with little offense. The Rams still have more legitimate skill players and will have a steady, balanced game plan with McVay. The Patriots will scheme to keep the game close despite Newton’s struggles, but they simply won’t find enough offense to win and reward their defense again.
Rams 20, Patriots 13