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DraftKings Picks Week 14: NFL DFS lineup advice for daily fantasy football tournaments
Week 14 may be the fantasy playoffs for some fantasy football owners, but for avid NFL DFS players, they’ll get a chance to play on a 13-game slate for the first time in quite a while with bye weeks finally over. That will make the slate a deep one, and our Week 14 DraftKings tournament will take advantage of the depth by spending up for a few top-tier players while targeting streamers and sleepers to fill out the rest of our lineup.
There is value all over the slate, but in particular, the tight end position has some potential breakout players available on the cheap. We’ll be taking a chance on one at a sub-$3K price to see if he can extend his TD streak to two and break out in a decent matchup. Elsewhere, we have a dirt-cheap WR that we’re stacking with a consistent QB, and we’re trusting an undervalued RB who is part of a committee situation.
As usual, we wanted to target the best matchups available as well as some high-scoring games. That led us to the Packers-Lions and Titans-Jaguars games, as both teams have some exploitable weaknesses and could turn into shootouts. Notably, the RB matchups on the slate are very good, as a lot of top-tier players have easy matchups this week. Spending up for them is definitely worth it, especially if you can pair them with the right sleeper to get both a high ceiling and lineup differentiation.
This lineup is for Week 14 DraftKings main slate tournaments.
QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans @ Jaguars ($6,700)
Last week, we went with Kirk Cousins against the Jaguars in this spot. This week, we’re picking on the Jags again. Tannehill has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks this season, posting multiple TDs in 10 of 12 starts this year andaveraging just under 250 yards per game. He rarely turns the ball over, too. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to QBs this year and have allowed 26 passing TDs to QBs, good for second most behind only the Titans (27). Tannehill should have another solid day, especially with the Titans looking to bounce back from a loss to the Browns in which they surrendered 41 points.
RB Aaron Jones, Packers @ Lions ($7,600)
In a word, the Lions’ run defense is horrible. They have allowed most DK points to the RB position than any other team in the NFL, and that’s largely due to their inability to keep RBs out of the end zone. They have allowed a league-leading 23 TDs to RBs on the year, and that’s far and away the most in the NFL. Jones should be positioned to take advantage of this. The last time he played the Lions, he racked up 236 yards and three TDs on just 22 touches. He should be able to have another big game in this matchup considering that he just put up 148 total yards and a TD on a much better Eagles run defense.
RB D’Andre Swift, Lions vs. Packers ($6,500)
After missing the Lions’ past three games with a concussion and then an illness, Swift should be set to return to action against the Packers. He should also be positioned to succeed in his return to the field. The Packers have allowed the third-most DK points to RBs this season, and in particular, they have been weak against pass-catching RBs. The Packers have allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position (601) and that includes a five-catch, 60-yard outing that Swift had back in Week 2. In a larger, role, he should be able to earn some yards on the ground while also exploiting the Packers through the air. Perhaps he’ll even find a way to score against Packers defense that has allowed 16 total TDs to RBs this year, second only to the Lions.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks vs. Jets ($8,400)
Metcalf is one of the best receivers in football right now, and he’s playing against the worst team –and quite possibly, the worst secondary — this week. The Seahawks are playing the hapless 0-12 Jets, who just fired their defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and Metcalf should feast. The Jets have allowedthe eighth-most fantasy points to WRs this year, but they have allowed the third-most yards to the position at 2,350 through 12 games. Metcalf has posted at least 13 DK points in 10 of his 12 games, and he should have no problem reaching that mark and vastly exceeding it against the Jets. He’s a good high-priced WR target, and even if the Seahawks get up big, Metcalf will still have a chance to do a lot of damage early in the game.
WR Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. Falcons ($7,700)
Allen is currently leading the NFL in targets per game at 133. He has seen at least 10 targets in every game this season and is averaging 19.7 DK points per game because of his massive receptions total (90). Allen has a terrific matchup against the Falcons in Week 14. Atlanta has allowed the second-most DK points to WRs this season, and Allen should be targeted often by Justin Herbert in this game. Spending up for Allen, Metcalf, and Aaron Jones will mean spending down at WR3, TE, FLEX, and D/ST, but grabbing him to give our lineup a sky-high floor is a smart move. And spending the rest of our budget on solid, lower-priced sleepers should give our lineup a nice ceiling.
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WR Adam Humphries, Titans @ Jaguars ($3,300)
Last week, Humphries played for the first time since suffering a concussion in Week 8 against the Bengals. He didn’t do much against the Browns, catching one of four targets for just nine yards, but getting back on the field was a big accomplishment. Humphries is a good buy-low candidate for DraftKings this week. He may be behind A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and the Titans’ starting TE — Jonnu Smith (if healthy), Anthony Firsker (if not) — but there will still be targets available for him. He averaged 5.8 per game before he suffered his injury, and even if he catches only a few passes, he should pay off this bottom-barrel price tag. Stacking Humphries with Tannehill is a high-risk, high-upside move, but against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the sixth-most DK points to WRs this season, it’s worth a shot, especially since it helps us pay up for the likes of Jones, Metcalf, and Allen.
TE Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Texans ($2,900)
Kmet is now the No. 1 tight end in Chicago. The second-round rookie has played in at least 70 percent of the team’s snaps the past three games, and he had a solid game against the Lions last week. Kmet caught five passes for 37 yards and a TD, and considering how much Chicago likes to target their tight ends near the end zone (Jimmy Graham leads the team with 15 targets inside the 20), Kmet should have a chance to be a TD threat in this matchup. The Texans are middle-of-the-road against TEs, but considering that Kmet costs less than $3K, he’s a worthwhile streaming risk with TD upside.
FLEX Phillip Lindsay, Broncos @ Panthers ($4,300)
Lindsay may seem like an odd pick after Melvin Gordon’s massive game against the Chiefs. That said, while Gordon had 142 yards in that contest, he only out-touched Lindsay 16-14. The backfield is still a dead-even split, and that was with Lindsay coming off a knee injury that knocked him out halfway through the Broncos’ loss to the Saints. Lindsay shouldn’t be priced this low considering the touches he’s getting. He’s facing a Panthers defense that has allowed the sixth-most DK points to RBs this year, so Lindsay could do more damage in the better matchup, especially if he gets healthier in the lead-up to that game. He’s worth the risk as a low-price, high-upside flex play.
D/ST New York Giants vs. Cardinals ($2,600)
To be clear, this isn’t an overreaction to the Giants’ win over the Seahawks. They’ve actually been solid on defense in recent weeks and seem to be hitting their stride. They have logged at least 9.0 DK points in three of their past four games and have allowed more than 22 points just once since Week 5. If they can continue to rack up multiple sacks (they are averaging three per game in their past four) and turnovers (2.5 per game in that four-game span), they should have a chance to keep Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, who have turned the ball over three times in their past two games, off-balance.